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Brexit vote must not spark panic

A European Union flag, with a hole cut in the middle, flies at half mast.
A European Union flag, with a hole cut in the middle, flies at half mast.

Keep calm and carry on.

It seems a glib phrase given the circumstances but there really is nothing else for the business community to do.

To be clear, Scottish companies – like its people – did not want to leave the European Union.

So much was Remain the settled will amongst the commercial sector north of the Border that it was impossible even to foment a debate on the issue.

A few weeks ago I warned about complacency as the gap between Remain and Leave appeared to be narrowing.

But there was still no reaction – just a deep faith the UK collectively would not be silly enough to sever its direct links with the single largest trading bloc on the planet.

That is exactly what has now come to pass.

With a vote for Brexit we are now in uncharted waters.

All the hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth in the world will make no difference to the outcome, and the sooner Scottish business accepts that reality the better.

The only course of action is to pause, take a deep breath and then carry on as if nothing has happened.

As it stands, the UK is still part of the EU and will remain so for an extended period as the country’s exit is negotiated.

But the long-term outlook is highly uncertain.

Tens of billions were wiped off the value of the UK’s leading stocks as brokers in the City realised they had backed the wrong horse and sold to cover their losses.

The value of Sterling took a huge hit and many of our great industrial institutions resembled headless chickens as they scrabbled about looking for answers as to what Leave will mean for generations to come.

The long and short of it is those answers do not exist.

This is the road less travelled and for that we are entering a lengthy period of macro uncertainty.

In Scotland, it looks like a second independence referendum is now inevitable.

Assuming a landslide, there will presumably then be a long road to negotiate a return to the European Union.

But what will that trading bloc look like on Scotland’s return?

Will it be a strong or, given the signals from Holland and France today, will it be a weakened shadow of itself that is crumbling from within?

Don’t believe anyone who tells you they have the answers to these questions. They don’t.

All that Scotland and its business community can do in a time like this is hope for the best and plan for the worst.

It is a given that our collective coats will be on a shoogly peg for many years to come.

But that doesn’t mean we need to panic. As a unit we must concentrate, plan, and perform.

Ultimately, that is the only way to emerge stronger whatever the political landscape may be.