One year on from the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States, Dr Matthew Ward, senior history lecturer at Dundee University, predicts that the second year of the Trump presidency promises to be “even more eventful” than the first.
Observers could be forgiven for thinking that social media posturing and political leadership are one and the same given the worldwide frenzy that accompanied every tweet by Donald Trump over the past year.
But for all the rhetoric, sabre-rattling, and grandiose claims, very little in America has actually changed.
Attempts to repeal Obamacare and impose a travel ban have been held up. The wall remains unbuilt. Hillary remains at large. The swamp remains undrained.
Some of the poorest people in America were among Trump’s most fervent supporters but his biggest legislative success to date is a programme of massive tax cuts for his fellow billionaires and millionaires.
Some predicted that Trump would become more statesmanlike the second he arrived in the White House, a temptation he has most emphatically resisted.
For all the threats fired out to countries and leaders via social media, the biggest deviation from past foreign policy is the decision to move the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a largely symbolic decision that will cost US a lot of support in Middle East.
Beyond the emptiness of the Make America Great Again slogans there remains confusion about what the 45th President is trying to achieve.
Any coherent strategy appears to have come from the now defenestrated Steve Bannon or Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Otherwise the administration behaves like a bar-full of drunks firing out policy after policy without any thought to how they connect.
Much attention is given to Trump’s low approval ratings but, for me, the most surprising aspect of Trump’s tumultuous first year is that a President elected with a minority vote remains so popular with his core supporters.
Trump’s renegade, shoot-from-the-hip brand clearly still appeals, and the American economy is performing strongly, although how much credit the President can legitimately claim for this is debatable.
And then there’s Russia. The FBI investigation into possible collusion will continue to dog Trump but the Democrats may well go quiet on possible impeachment as we approach the mid-term elections.
With many career Republicans standing down due to their discontent with the Trump leadership, the President faces the very real possibility of losing both Houses.
If the Democrats feel Trump is hobbling the Republicans, then keeping him in the Oval Office for the meantime is in their interest.
The second year of the Trump presidency promises to be even more eventful than the first.
