Kate Forbes had the “entire SNP apparatus against her” but still managed to run a contest “as close as it gets”, says a campaign insider moments after the leadership contest result became clear.
But while clearly sore at the narrow loss, the Highland MSP’s team says she can feel “very pleased”.
After all, she did win 48% of the vote – just over 2,000 votes behind the victorious new SNP leader, Humza Yousaf.
Just six weeks ago, the SNP politician’s campaign looked like it was in meltdown. She had revealed she would not have voted for equal marriage had she been an MSP.
Much was made of her comments. But in the end, she came tantalisingly close to winning the keys to Bute House.
One campaign insider said she started the race “very much the underdog” with just days to decide if she should come back early from maternity leave to join the contest.
“She had the entire SNP apparatus against her”, the source said.
“Government ministers were against her. I don’t think she had a single government minister back her.
“At the end she ran it very close, as close as it can get.
“She can be very pleased with the result considering the start she had too.”
The insider said Mr Yousaf has “not exactly got a ringing mandate”, with more than half of members choosing either her or Ms Regan on first preference votes.
A recent membership row revealed the SNP had lost almost 30% of its membership, while 30% of existing members chose not to vote for any candidate in this contest.
Ms Forbes is expected to return to maternity leave until after the April recess.
But Mr Yousaf will have to decide if he will accept his former rival into his new cabinet, in a way to bring a divided party back together.
Speaking to journalists after the election count, Ms Forbes said Mr Yousaf is “absolutely” capable of uniting the SNP.
When asked if she wanted a spot in his top team, she said “it is for Humza to appoint his cabinet”.
Reflecting on the result, Professor James Mitchell, of Edinburgh University, said the “Sturgeon-Murrell camp had been clearly out to stop Kate Forbes”.
He added that “backfired” and “probably antagonised a lot of members of the SNP”.
He added: “What we saw was a rather weak minister managing to claw back victory, not the kind of victory they thought they were going to get at the outset for sure.”
The academic continued: “That’s a phenomenally good result for Kate Forbes.
“Nobody expected she would come close to winning this contest.”
The rise and fall of Kate Forbes’ campaign
Ms Forbes was sat in a baby class singing nursery rhymes with daughter Naomi when Nicola Sturgeon announced her departure.
She was not due to return from maternity leave until after the April parliamentary recess but had to consider whether she should return early to enter the race.
Following days of speculation, she chose to go for it and published a campaign launch video on February 20.
That same day, she revealed she would not have backed controversial changes to gender recognition reform, pushed through by Ms Sturgeon.
Within 24 hours and an extensive media round, her campaign appeared to be in total meltdown after losing support from a number of backers over her views on equal marriage.
Ms Forbes said she would not have voted for the legislation if she had been an MSP when the bill passed in 2014 on the basis of her faith.
Aberdeenshire East MSP Gillian Martin withdrew her support, within 12 hours of having first endorsed her, saying equal marriage is a “red line” issue for her.
And she also lost the backing of Moray MSP Richard Lochhead who after welcoming her candidacy, said the SNP “can’t have a party leader who’d vote against same-sex marriage”. Others would follow.
Kate Forbes is running for First Minister 'at the moment' as she defends gay marriage stance. https://t.co/DOllPAdSQ8 pic.twitter.com/5SOV3VtO3M
— STV News (@STVNews) February 21, 2023
But undeterred, Ms Forbes maintained her campaign was “absolutely not over”.
This she did with some success with the release of polls showing her as the favourite amongst voters, including from other parties.
This was something she would seek to capitalise on by stressing that only she had the ability to reach across the divide and entice undecided voters towards independence.
Yet this took place against a backdrop of MPs and MSPs – including most of the current cabinet – flooding to coalesce around Mr Yousaf as their chosen candidate.
With the party behind him, Ms Forbes’ sights turned on taking aim at his performance in the ministerial positions he has held.
Many of the party faithful appeared horrified to see the MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch turn on one of their own as she criticised his record.
But outside the political bubble, it seems large swathes of the party, almost half, favoured her vision for Scotland.
For some, they decided they wanted to chart a new path away from Ms Sturgeon’s legacy in government.
That’s sure to include voters who feel she has failed to understand areas outside the central belt, including the Highlands and Islands and the north-east.
Ms Forbes is in a strong positition to find herself back in government but the focus is now on Mr Yousaf as he looks to form his cabinet later this week. Will there be a place for the runner-up?