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Labour set for Fife gains while SNP stand strong in Dundee – poll

Research on election intentions shows former Labour areas in Fife and central Scotland look good for Keir Starmer.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (left) and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar during a campaign visit to Glasgow Perthshire football club. Image: PA.

Labour is poised to win in former Fife heartlands as part of a swing away from the SNP at the next general election.

New research shows Keir Starmer’s UK party could pick up 23 Westminster seats held by the Nationalists in Scotland.

The YouGov polling shows Humza Yousaf’s tally of MPs would fall from 48 to 27.

However, SNP support appears to remain solid in Dundee, while Lib Dems hold on in North East Fife.

Conservatives, not represented at Westminster anywhere in Fife, Perthshire, Dundee or Angus, would be pegged back elsewhere, including in Aberdeenshire.

Here’s how UK constituencies across Courier Country could look if there were a general election tomorrow.


Dundee

The SNP has done well in the city which voted strongly for independence in 2014.

The YouGov polling suggests a 41% share of the vote in Dundee East, where Stewart Hosie is the MP.

Dundee West, held by Chris Law, would also stay with the SNP on 48%, a full 18 points ahead of Labour and streets ahead of the Conservatives.

Party leader Humza Yousaf lives in the city, which also run by the SNP. No sign of that support flagging here during a tough time for the party after Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation.

Angus

The Angus constituency has swung between SNP and Conservative recently.

The projected vote share now puts the SNP on 36% and the Tories on 29%, with Labour four points behind that in third place.

Pete Wishart, MP for Perth and North Perthshire

Perth and Kinross

Peter Wishart has had some close contests in Perth and North Perthshire, including a 21 vote victory over Conservative Ian Duncan in 2017.

The YouGov research now suggests 38% for the SNP, followed by 26% for Tories.

Ochil and South Perthshire, held by John Nicolson, also appears safe for the SNP with a 37% share, 10 points clear of the Tories.

Fife

The Kingdom is where the changes could happen and vote becomes more mixed.

First, North East Fife could stick with the Lib Dems, who don’t look like making any losses or gains nationally.

But the vote projection there is close. The research suggests just two points between the Lib Dems on 35% and the SNP behind them.

Glenrothes was won by the SNP in 2019 and looks likely to stay that way with a solid 42% vote share.

Neale Hanvey MP. Image: Supplied

But Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath – Gordon Brown’s former seat – is projected to turn red again.

It’s held by Alba MP Neale Hanvey. His loss could be mirrored in East Lothian where Kenny MacAskill is the only other MP in the party. He is projected to lose to Labour there too.

Dunfermline and West Fife could also shift to Labour in a tight contest with the SNP, according to the research.


YouGov spoke to more than 3,500 adults in Scotland between April 10 and May 21

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