Stopping the longest streak of failure in European rugby against a team almost rampant with self-confidence is the task facing a Scotland squad holding on to the last strands of confidence in a Six Nations that promised much but delivered the same old story.
Beating England at Twickenham is hard enough for Scotland at the best of times only two wins there since the war and none at all for 28 years but the hosts have a settled side, flushed with confidence after three strong wins.
There is a growing belief that they can challenge in the World Cup this autumn, particularly if, like when they won the Webb Ellis Trophy in 2003, they travel to the competition having won a grand slam.
Scotland fans should be immune to optimism by now so often in recent times have they been induced into thinking their team might be turning the corner only to find, by this stage of the championship, another struggle to avoid a whitewash and a wooden spoon when some thought they might be able to challenge for the title.
It’s important to remember Scotland were at this exact stage a year ago three played, three lost, and about to face England.
Then the team, who had shown some signs of improvement in the three losses, roused themselves to have the better of a draw in the Calcutta Cup match and then beat Ireland away, the result that sparked a run of five wins in six matches.
The big differences this year are that there has been nothing as encouraging if ultimately heartbreaking as the performance in Cardiff last year, the venue for the game and the improved England team, whose grand slam aspirations few would have predicted before the autumn tests.
Robinson is adamant that there has been progress in his team since the autumn but there are worrying elements of 2006-07, Scotland’s last spike and then slump in form.
Then, Frank Hadden led the Scots to three wins in the 2006 championship but momentum was lost as, in this world of detailed analysis, Scotland’s system was broken down and by the autumn and then Six Nations, the team was largely sussed.
This seems to have happened again.’Courage’ neededThe All Blacks’ research on Scotland’s defence last November was particularly devastating, with France and Wales if not South Africa able to follow suit.
The other factor is Scotland’s sorry record at Twickenham only four wins ever and none since Roy Laidlaw took his circuitous route to a crucial try around the English cover defence in 1983.
A draw in 1989 is the only other “positive” result, although Scotland could have won in 1999 had referee David McHugh had the guts to send off the current England manager, Martin Johnson, as he should have.
Johnson has had a couple of years in which he has struggled to find his feet and his best team, but he seems to be close now, and the longer he has the players in camp the better they seem to get.
But for an inexplicable loss to a Springboks team Scotland beat in the autumn, England have looked the best team in the northern hemisphere since last summer.
“It takes courage, in that you’ve got to take the game to England,” said Robinson, who, as head or assistant coach of his native country for years, should know what it takes to win at Twickenham.
“If we just sit back and kick the ball their counter-attack game is very good.
“We have to get off the line and put white shirts on the floor we have to get stuck into them.”
He added, “When we turn ball over and make a mistake we have to have everyone alert to the fact we’ll have lost shape in the defensive line and find it quickly.
“England have scored some great tries from their own line through counter-attack and quick-tap penalties and so can punish us from anywhere, so we’ve got to be on red alert for the whole game.”
Robinson said, “In the last game we lost two lineouts-one through poor delivery, one thrown over the top and the personnel weren’t in place and those two mistakes gave Ireland the field position to score 14 points.
“It’s been very easy for the opposition to score against us and we can’t allow that to happen this weekend.”‘A great place to play rugby’Robinson’s term as England coach did not end happily but he is looking forward to going back to massed stands at Twickenham, who turned on him when his tenure turned sour.
He said, “It’s a fantastic stadium and now that they’ve built up the South Stand to enclose the ground it’s a great place.
“The surface is tremendous, it’s a fast track and a great place to play rugby.”
He added, “What I’ve been saying to the players is that there’s nowhere better to go out and perform, and after the hard training you’ve put in to go there and be performing for your country is fantastic, especially against a team that is on top of its game.
“At no stage can any player be resting when they ball is in play. We need every player on their feet, alert and if we do that I believe that we can achieve a win.”
Given the mountain to climb, one can appreciate the decision this time to start with at fly-half with Ruaridh Jackson, who does have a habit of playing well in big games for Glasgow and should offer more attacking flair for a back-line that, with five wings in it, still appears a bit more Heath Robinson than Andy.
The oddity of the Ireland game was that Jackson was picked when a control game under Dan Parks would surely have been a better tactic to win, and then that the youngster opted to play like Parks, lying too deep and hoisting up-and-unders.
To complete the confusion, Parks came on for the final 25 minutes and played flat in the face of the Irish defence as Scotland got within an unconverted try of a win which would have been a travesty.
The fact is that the fly-half position for Scotland in recent times has resembled the Eurovision Song Contest the later you come on, the better you look, but none of the candidates are very good to start with.
Jackson has promise to be the most rounded 10 for many years, but it’s time for him to start showing it, especially as he would appear to be set for next week’s finale against Italy.Scrummaging problemsScotland’s other issue has been the pack, specifically the scrummage, where for all the complaints from the Scottish camp of being hard done by, the perception is that they’ve struggled.
Roman Poite is one of Europe’s best young refs but he must have seen that Scotland have scrummaged poorly in this championship while England have done well.
Even without preconceptions, should the scrummage become a mess again on Sunday, it’s not hard to see whom the Frenchman might deny the benefit of the doubt.
The lineout has been better but, while near-perfect last year, errors this year have cost Scotland dear against France and Ireland. For the first time since Ross Ford came into the role 46 caps ago, he is under significant pressure.
For the Scots last year the back row was the great equaliser but the injury to Johnnie Beattie and the suspicion that John Barclay is less than fully fit have left Kelly Brown trying to make up the deficit, and as Scotland’s best player of the championship he has tried manfully.
Nathan Hines returns for Beattie, who was manifestly not ready for Ireland.
Ben Youngs, England’s excellent young scrum-half, will be licking his lips.
Robinson insists the team are still high on confidence and on message, and there is no question the squad are with the head coach 100%.
He managed to inspire them to unlikely wins against Australia, Ireland, Argentina and South Africa, and the benefits from those wins can still be exploited.
But this is Twickenham, and the mountainous stands have been too steep to conquer in the past, and losing more than 40 points has almost been the norm in the last decade.
It’s hard to see anything else happening.