Logic still dictates that even an All Black team shorn of all but the maestros that are Richie McCaw and Dan Carter will beat Scotland, admits Vern Cotter, but the Scotland coach has a steely look of unemotional determination about playing his countrymen.
Cotter has predictably named the same side that started against Argentina but only McCaw probably because this will be the captain with Scottish roots’ last chance to play in Edinburgh and Ben Smith survive from New Zealand’s defeat of England on Saturday.
The restoration of the peerless Carter for his 136th cap after a year’s injury absence makes up the deficit a little, and there being no such thing as a weak All Black team, the task is not appreciably eased, believes the coach.
Furthermore, as he points out, the 109-year, 29-match record of never having lost a test between the two countries is not only intimidating for Scotland, it’s a rallying point for the New Zealanders.
“At the 7s at the Commonwealth Games I overheard the New Zealand players talking amongst themselves about how much they did not what to be the first New Zealand team to lose to Scotland at any level, be it U20, or 18s, sevens, certainly not at All Blacks level,” said Cotter.
“That is why they will be comfortable with the team they have selected. They know those players will give it absolutely everything and they will be all the more dangerous for it.”
The Scots anticipate a “very enthusiastic and dangerous team” at BT Murrayfield this weekend.
“When we looked at their schedule we picked out that they would be giving players opportunities for the United States game and against us,” he continued. “They’re doing what the All Blacks do very well, bring players on tour, select and put them on the track.
“We all know in situations like this, when players have been waiting a long time and dreaming of putting on the All Blacks jersey, when they finally do, they grow another leg as they say.
“We know a little bit of what the All Black culture represents and how the players play to those standards every time they pull the jersey on.
“In that respect it would not really matter which players are playing. All Black coaches are very smart and very shrewd in what they do.
“They don’t put players out there before they have completely analysed them and prepared them completely to play.”
In any case, if there’s any petulance among Scottish supporters about a perceived lack of respect, please enter the real world. The last time the All Blacks put out a full strength side at Murrayfield, in 2010, they won 49-3 with seven converted tries.
The only way to gain their respect, and maybe even an invite to play a test in their country, is to earn it, and Cotter believes that his young team will at least do that, and by not worrying too much about the consequences.
“Logic will say we have no chance of winning this,” he continued. “Reasonable people will say we have no chance but our players have big hearts and want to give this a crack.
“I think if you get caught up in the emotion you are in all sorts of trouble. We know that they are very good and we spent a long time looking at them and couldn’t find a clear or evident way to disrupt them.”
Cotter was happy that the formations that worked against Argentina could develop further in the short time between tests, so it was a reasonably short selection meeting.
There are four changes on the bench, less to do with the way Scotland struggled after substitutions on Saturday a 34-10 lead turned into “just” a 41-31 win and more that they detect New Zealand “improve as the game goes on”.
“They are happy to weather the storm at the start then accelerate,” he said. “They have a very strong bench and I would imagine they will try and tire us out and then push on in the last 20 minutes. It is important to have mobility and strength all over the park.”
It means that Johnnie Beattie and Chris Cusiter, who weren’t considered for Argentina because of lack of game time, return while the mobile Tim Swinson and Fraser Brown come in for Jim Hamilton and Scott Lawson.