Scottish polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice says Rishi Sunak can avoid calling a general election if he can unite the Conservatives and successfully form a new administration.
He told us it is not “inconceivable” that the party in its current state would fall below 40 seats at Westminster and end up behind the SNP.
Mr Sunak will become the UK’s next prime minister after being the only candidate to get enough votes to stand in the Tory leadership election.
Despite only being elected as an MP in 2015, at the age of 42 Mr Sunak becomes the first Hindu and the first person of colour to get the top job.
But he faces a huge in-tray from his predecessors Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, as well as poor results against Labour in the polls.
Sir John believes he can avoid calling an election – but only if he can unite the party, something the past two prime ministers failed to do.
Boost to Conservative fortunes
He said: “I anticipate there will be something of a boost to the Conservative Party’s fortunes following Rishi Sunak’s accession.
“At the moment, in the polls, they are in a desperate situation.
“They were not looking good in the opinion polls even before the fiscal event, let alone have any suggestions they could win a general election.
“But perhaps they could go from 32 points behind to 22 points behind.”
He added: “There is no way out of the hole the Conservatives find themselves in unless conditions are reversed.
“And history suggests a government which survives a fiscal crisis won’t survive a general election, and this is the first time a fiscal crisis has brought down a prime minister.”
Sir John said many people who voted Conservative in 2019 are now unsure because of the “mess” the party is now in, but believes some will be drawn back to the Conservative camp with Mr Sunak at the helm.
Party remains ‘fragile’ in the polls
The Conservatives will however remain “fragile” while they are still behind in the polls.
Just before Liz Truss announced her resignation as prime minister, some suggested the Conservatives would fall into fourth place behind Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP if an election was held.
Sir John said it is “difficult” to know how many of the 357 seats the Conservatives hold could be lost under current trends.
But warned they “could easily be down to 60 – or worse, go to 40, so SNP ahead.”
The expert added that scenario it is “not inconceivable but unless they commit there will be no general election”.
Rishi Sunak will want to avoid that at all costs, and Sir John thinks he might be able to.
He said: “As long as he is able to form an administration and doesn’t get into too much trouble he will avoid a general election.
“But his job will not be easy, there are still MPs who are unhappy at his succession.
“Unless we get to a situation where his administration can’t survive, he will avoid a general election.
“It is crucial he keeps the party together against potential factions, and that won’t be easy.”
What about Scottish independence?
We also asked Sir John what affect Mr Sunak becoming prime minister will have on people’s voting intentions in a Scottish independence referendum.
Sir John said: “Absolutely none at all.”