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Brexit will cost Scotland up to £11bn a year, says Scottish Government analysis

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon

Brexit will cost Scotland up to £11bn every year, according to a study published by the SNP Government.

Tax revenues will also shrink by nearly £4bn because of the impact of leaving the EU, the analysis found.

Nicola Sturgeon said the figures reveal that whatever alternative relationship is struck with Brussels there will be a “profound and long-lasting impact on the Scottish economy and society.

“That stark picture outlined today means that, whatever the model of relationship with the EU which is chosen by the UK Government in their negotiations before and after Article 50 is triggered, it will not be as economically beneficial as full EU membership,” she said.

“The only way to protect Scotland’s economy – and the clear benefits which come from being part of the world’s biggest single market – is to work to ensure we protect our relationship with the EU.

“My Government is absolutely committed to pursuing every possible avenue and option to do that.”

The Government analysis paper suggests that by 2030, Scottish GDP is projected to be between £1.7 billion and £11.2 billion per year lower than it would have been if Brexit did not happen.

Tax revenue is projected to be between £1.7 billion and £3.7 billion lower.

Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson, who was speaking to activists in Edinburgh today, said it is a “bit rich” for Ms Sturgeon’s government to provide a breakdown of Brexit costs when the impact will much more severe if her independence ambitions were realised.

“Even by their own figures anything she highlights will be times four-fold or more by keeping independence on the table or withdrawing Scotland from the UK,” she said.

The Scottish Government analysis was published a day before the release of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures, which is expected to show an increase in Scotland’s £15bn budget deficit.