Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to win over anti-immigration Scots as she laid out a plan to avoid a £12.7bn Brexit disaster.
The First Minister said growing the population is “perhaps the greatest national challenge” and the only way to do that in the coming decades is getting more migrants to settle in Scotland.
She pledged to tackle the immigration issue head on when she launched a Scottish Government study on the impact of Brexit on Monday.
The economic analysis warns that crashing out of the EU without a deal would cost the Scottish economy £12.7bn a year by 2030 – the equivalent of £2,300 for every person in Scotland.
Leaving the European single market and securing a Canada-style free trade deal would shrink output by £9bn a year, which amounts to £1,610 per person, the study found.
Theresa May insists the UK will leave the European single market, which allows for the free movement of EU citizens between member states.
Ms Sturgeon said the report reveals the “economic hit” from Brexit would trigger a decline population in Scotland that is more painful than the loss in trade.
She told a press conference that low birth rates means “all of our projected population growth will come from inward migration” up until 2041.
“Without that, our population could go into decline and with it our ability to grow our economy and fund our public services,” she said.
“That would be the stark reality for Scotland of a restriction in our ability to attract people to our country.
“And that is why, as First Minister, I have a duty to make the case for free movement no matter how difficult that is sometimes perceived to be.”
The St Andrew’s House study puts the average cost of an EU citizen’s contribution to tax revenues at £10,400 a year.
The SNP wants Scotland to have its own immigration system, whether the country remains part of the UK or not.
That plan was dealt a blow last week in a study by Prof Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, which revealed 63% of Scots want a UK-wide migration regime.
Speaking in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the “best way” to minimise the economic damage is to stay inside the single market and retain the free flow of EU migrants.
The SNP leader reached out to Jeremy Corbyn to form a Commons majority in favour of that.
On Sunday, Ms Sturgeon said she would make a decision by the end of the year on whether to call an independence referendum.
The accepted timetable for the terms of Brexit to be agreed between EU chiefs and UK ministers is October.
Ms Sturgeon said once there is more clarity on the nature Brexit in the autumn she will make the call on Indyref2, which she said could be held while Scotland is still effectively in the EU during the two-year transition period.
Adam Tomkins, for the Scottish Conservatives, said the SNP Government has gone “completely over-the-top in its scaremongering”.
“It’s vital the SNP works with the UK Government to achieve the best Brexit deal and not will the process to fail in the hope of furthering its own constitutional obsessions,” he added.
Theresa May’s official spokesman said: “The Prime Minister has made clear her commitment to getting a good deal which serves the interests of all parts of the United Kingdom, and that we are confident of doing so.”
