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Analysis: An illegal indyref2 is all smoke with no fire

Nicola Sturgeon on stage on the first day of the SNP conference.
Nicola Sturgeon on stage on the first day of the SNP conference.

Let’s get something clear straight away. There is about as much chance of Nicola Sturgeon calling an illegal independence referendum as there is of me playing up front for Scotland.

Given Berti Vogts is no longer handing out caps like sweeties in charge of the national football team, the likelihood of the latter occurrence is probably easy to agree.

No, the First Minister did not rule out making the rogue move despite being asked no fewer than 10 times by STV’s dogged Bernard Ponsonby.

Yes, MP Callum McCaig appeared to suggest such a move could be considered if Theresa May is able to hold onto a policy position for more than a week and continues playing hardball.

But it would be a crazy move.

A properly off-the-wall, ruin-your-chances-of-success plot that would destroy all the credibility the SNP has worked extremely hard to build up over the past 15 years.

We are instead witnessing two hard-headed leaders facing each other down and refusing to blink.

If Sturgeon ruled out an advisory vote she would be conceding that the decision to hold a ballot on taking Scotland out of the UK is not actually hers.

It is not, of course, but the pressure she is putting on the Prime Minister relies on her appearing to be in as strong a position as possible.

That means not even a flicker of weakness is allowed.

Next week’s division at Holyrood will make another referendum “the will of the Scottish Parliament,” even if that means a little less these days given that lost votes on education and health have been quietly ignored by the Scottish Government.

It is important, though, particularly in terms of its symbolism.

Sturgeon wants people to be angry about May’s refusal to budget on a second referendum and there is more chance of that happening if it is Holyrood’s demand, not her’s.

The rhetoric will remain assertive in the meantime.