Prior to the week that was, the central topic of gossip in Scottish politics is whether Humza Yousaf would make it to the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections as first minister – now people wonder if he’ll make it through the week.
Just when you thought Holyrood politics was set to take a backseat as all eyes turned to a UK General Election, the first minister chooses to break up with his Green partners in the most public and ungracious of ways.
Dumped and forced to walk out of the front door before the cameras, no wonder the Greens are hurt and angry.
It’s worth looking back a fortnight, a time which now feels like modern history, to appreciate the Green’s response to the government’s announcement that it was dropping it’s 2030 interim climate change targets.
Clearly a blow to environmentalists, the Greens towed the line.
They were obviously disappointed but they were prepared to dig in and argued on balance that the climate was still safer with their hands on the lever of powers than without it.
They were committed to the Bute House Agreement at a time when no-one would have blamed them from walking away.
That makes this split all the more extraordinary.
Budget left party open to attack
It all reminds me of that classic break-up adage “it’s not you, it’s me.”
There’s simply no doubt that Humza Yousaf had a line of people at the door saying he was set to pay an electoral price for his deals with the Greens.
Whether that be on gender policies that have alienated women, or his approach to oil and gas which makes his attempts to hold and win in the North East all the harder.
Across Scotland’s major cities and the M8 corridor, Labour were poised to capitalise on a SNP/Green budget that cuts £200 million on social housing and spends £200m on cycle lanes.
All this combined with a council tax freeze, which benefits wealthier households whilst choking local public services, left the party open to the attack that it both had the wrong priorities and no vision.
Quite an achievement.
Humza Yousaf is not likely to give up easily.
He’s not waited his whole life for this moment to shrug his shoulders and walk off into the sunset.
And to give him his due, he’s never really had a fair run of it.
Constantly in the shadow of his predecessors, their legacies and their current trials and tribulations.
But as too many Scots know life ain’t fair and them’s the shakes.
Background for fightback faced controversies
That fighting spirit was on show in Dundee on Friday when he chose a housing project to make a major announcement and answer the inevitable questions from journalists which will follow him with every minute that passes between now and the no confidence vote he faces.
It’s been reported that he cancelled a speech at Strathclyde University in order to make this announcement in Dundee so it has all the hallmarks of a rushed job.
Perhaps a little more reconnaissance and research might have thrown up one or two issues with the project that the first minister chose as the background for his fightback.
This Hillcrest Housing Association project in collaboration with Dundee City Council was approved in 2017 and has faced many delays and both rising costs and controversies over the past seven years.
Pals who walk past the project towards the hallowed ground of Tannadice tell me it’s been going awry from the very beginning.
As they’ve watched it go up slowly, they reflect the whole thing is back to front and upside down.
The contractors building all the ground floors of the property before returning to stack on the first floors.
The failure to stick a solid roof on the properties leading to the insides having to be stripped out and redone.
As metaphors go for Humza’s leadership, you’d struggle to find a more uncomfortable one.
‘SNP had better hope his challengers have a plan’
And what of the major announcement he made? £80m for housing and homelessness over two years.
That broadly means that the £200m cut the SNP Government made to the social housing budget in the full knowledge of the housing crisis Scotland faces is now around the £150m mark – with the rest of the cash being used to reinstate homelessness services.
Whilst a welcome shift in the right direction, let’s be clear, this is the SNP reinstating around 25% of the money it cut from it’s own plans to build just a fraction of the houses Scotland needs.
The pace of developments is currently so fast, its hard to make meaningful predictions about what will happen next, but this observer can see one clear pattern emerging.
If the biggest criticism of Humza Yousaf’s leadership is that he has no plan and has been making it up as he goes along, the SNP had better hope his challengers have a plan to rebuild their party’s fortunes.
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