St Johnstone have a Scottish Cup and Betfred Cup double in their sights.
Eric Nicolson looks at the big factors that will determine whether they will get the better of Hibs at the national stadium and put two trophies in the McDiarmid Park boardroom.
For the second Hampden game in a fortnight, St Johnstone haven’t exactly had ideal preparation again. What sort of impact do you expect it to have?
Let’s work on the premise that everybody will be available, which is looking like a decent bet, mercifully.
If that’s the case, I actually think Saints are in a better place for the Hibs game than they were preparing to face St Mirren.
Two weeks ago, the defence was intact but in a strength-sapping contest like a semi-final on a big Hampden pitch, Callum Davidson was severely limited in his midfield substitution options.
Not being able to call upon the experience and physical presence of Liam Craig and Murray Davidson was one of the reasons they struggled to get up the pitch when the late St Mirren onslaught came on top of them.
It was the most worried for Saints that I’d been in a long time and if the match had gone to extra-time, I think they would have lost.
Having a full squad, or very close to it, will mean Davidson has game-ready cover for every midfield and forward position if anybody starts to flag earlier than anticipated or tactical tweaks are necessitated.
And I think Craig and Davidson showed against Livingston last Saturday that a 10-day lay-off at this stage of the season doesn’t significantly impact on match fitness.
Callum Davidson and his players know their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses, having played them five times already, so whatever the circumstances this week, it would only have been a case of keeping them ticking over and fine-tuning the details of game-plans and set-pieces.
Nobody would want to deal with this sort of disruption but the timing could have been much, much worse (a week, or even half-a-week, earlier).
As you said, these two teams know each other inside-out. How much importance do you put on the head-to-head record?
Quite a bit actually.
People come out with the ‘cup final is a one-off’ line but that’s rubbish.
Try telling Jackie McNamara and Tommy Wright that. The comparison between Saints v Dundee United in 2014 and Saints v Hibs in 2021 are valid ones, even if history doesn’t go on to repeat itself.
Previous matches and the confidence you gain or lose from them matter. It would also be relevant if it sharpens the mind of the team which has struggled in those games, in this case Hibs.
I was happy with the Betfred Cup semi-final draw because it felt like a classic case of a good match-up for Davidson’s men. And that was at a point of the season when they hadn’t yet beaten Hibs.
Since that semi onwards Saints have won all three, without conceding a goal.
It would only be natural for the Hibs players to think ‘here we go again’ if they go one down.
The first goal is hugely important in every football match but it feels game-defining in this one.
Is it too simple to say that there is more pressure on Hibs than Saints?
No.
There’s not as big a difference as some would make out but it’s there all the same.
One team has achieved everything and more already in their season and won’t get any criticism if they don’t win, while the other will face accusations of big-game bottling if they lose.
The fact that the Scottish Cup now carries a better European prize than a third-placed league finish also increases the burden on Hibs.
They were impressive against Dundee United in the last four contest but the Tangerines are made for them in a way Saints certainly are not.
Jack Ross also has questions to answer.
I’ve got friends who are Sunderland fans and as soon as they found out it was a Saints v Hibs final they were rushing to put money on the Perth men given Ross’s failures at Wembley in the EFL Trophy and League One play-off finals.
As anybody who watched the last series of the magnificent ‘Sunderland ‘Til I die’ series will recall, his teams seemed inhibited rather than inspired when it mattered most.
That semi-final victory over United hasn’t wiped out suspicions of over-thinking and playing the occasion rather than the team.
Hibs need to win this final to do that.
Scottish Cup omens: Are the stars aligning for St Johnstone again?
Tactically, where is the interest?
In the last game between the teams, Saints did a brilliant job of forcing Hibs to try and play through the middle.
This is an intriguing sub-plot because it’s in this area of the pitch Ross is happy to fight it out against many sides.
Aberdeen away – the last run-out for something close to his first-choice team – was a perfect case in point.
The Opta average position map shows that Christian Doidge and Kevin Nisbet are virtually on top of each other.
Deploying two central strikers up against the Saints back-three is much more of a gamble.
So does Ross attempt to take Nisbet (and Jason Kerr) into wider areas or does he have faith that this will be the time and place when they find gaps in the heart of a defensive unit that hasn’t conceded more than one goal in a game since January?
What about team selections then?
I think Ross will go with his semi-final side but that’s not without risk or even mild controversy.
Ryan Porteous and Paul Hanlon is his regular partnership but there has been a clamour from supporters to find a place for Darren McGregor in light of his impressive form when given a chance of late.
That’s another example of flak waiting to come Ross’s way in defeat.
Porteous was the man out-jumped by Kerr for the crucial opening goal of the Betfred semi and who gift-wrapped a winner at Easter Road in the last league game.
If there’s a third costly mistake that can be put at Porteous’s (and by extension, Ross’s) door, Hibs fans won’t be in a forgiving mood.
Davidson’s defensive line-up requires no debate and in central midfield, Ali McCann and Craig is his best combination.
Don’t rule out a return of the one up and two off formation that worked so well in the Betfred semi and final (in which case Craig Conway would be the probable beneficiary) but it’s likelier to be 5-3-2 and Chris Kane up front with one other.
I suspect Guy Melamed, who hasn’t scored against a top-flight side since the beginning of March, has played his way out of the side and Stevie May will return.
So which are the head-to-heads Saints need to win to secure this cup double?
I think they match-up well in central midfield. Rangers didn’t get the better of them there and, if McCann and Craig hit those standards once more, there’s no reason to expect Hibs will.
If anything, running off Joe Newell is something McCann, in particular, can look to exploit.
Davidson will also back his central defenders to deal with Nisbet and Doidge.
Of course, Martin Boyle is a huge threat and Jamie McCart will be called upon to bail Callum Booth out if and when the winger gets the opportunity to out-pace him. If there’s one man capable of winning this final through individual brilliance alone, it’s Boyle.
But this could all come down to Shaun Rooney v Josh Doig.
Doig is a very impressive young left-back but the strengths of his game – athleticism and direct running – are Rooney’s.
Whichever one of them sees more of the ball in the opposition half could very well have a direct correlation on the end scoreline.
Saints’ attacking game relies upon Rooney’s availability for diagonal balls from Jamie McCart and Liam Craig and availability to take advantage of overloads when Kerr steps into midfield.
Do that often and precisely enough and the Perth side will have a great chance of turning one cup into two.
