As we were 12 months ago, both Raith Rovers and Dunfermline go into the final set of Viaplay Cup group-stage fixtures with a chance of going through to the knockouts.
Dunfermline’s hopes are pretty slim – and completely out of their hands after already completing their four matches.
The Pars sit top of Group F going into the weekend fixtures but they would need at least one unlikely result to progress.
Kilmarnock are one point behind as they travel to take on Lowland League outfit Albion Rovers and Raith take on pointless Annan Athletic, also on the road.
Pars in pole position
If Kilmarnock lose and Raith take two points or fewer, Dunfermline qualify as group winners.
If Raith and the Pars finish level, Dunfermline would be ahead on goal difference.
If Dunfermline end up level with Kilmarnock then it depends on the scoreline at Cliftonhill. Assuming Kilmanrock lose the shootout:
- If it is 0-0, Dunfermline would be ahead on goal difference
- If it is 1-1, Dunfermline would be ahead of away goals scored (as they would be tied on goal difference and goals scored)
- If it is 2-2 (or more) then Kilmanorck would go be ahead on goals scored
Should James McPake’s side finish second, they will then be relying on results in other groups and hoping that eight points is enough to qualify as one of the three best second-placed teams.
There are three scenarios in which this can happen:
- Kilmarnock win and Raith Rovers draw or worse (regardless of the penalty shootout)
- Raith Rovers win and Kilmarnock lose (or draw 0-0 or 1-1 and lose the shootout)
- Kilmarnock draw and win the shootout and Raith Rovers draw or worse (regardless of the penalty shootout)
Raith Rovers Viaplay Cup permutations
For Ian Murray’s men, it is a case of win the game and you are in the top two.
If they do the business against Annan and Kilmarnock take one point or fewer, Rovers will go through as group winners.
If Killie take all three points at Albion Rovers, they will top the group regardless of Raith’s result.
There are three scenarios in which Raith and Killie can finish level on points:
- Raith take one point and Kilmarnock lose
- Raith take two points and Kilmarnock take one
- Raith take three points and Kilmarnock take two
In the first two scenarios, since Rovers have no chance to increase their goal difference in the event of a draw, Derek McInnes’ side would stay above them.
Kilmarnock go into the final set of ties with a goal difference of +5, Raith are on +2.
That means that should the third scenario come to pass, Rovers will have to win the game by three, maybe four or more goals – depending on if Kilmarnock is a score draw or not.
All square
Scenario 2 – ie, if Kilmarnock draw and lose on penalties and Raith draw and win on penalties – would see all three teams finish on eight points.
That would make Dunfermline group winners, leave Kilmarnock relying on results from other groups and Raith out of the competition altogether.
Whoever finishes second will be relying on a whole host of results in other groups.
Dunfermline’s eight looks unlikely to be enough at this point given how many currently in second are on seven points.
Even Raith’s nine points – should both they and Kilmarnock win – may not be enough and could come possibly down to their margin of victory.
