Just one point separates Ayr United and Dundee ahead of Friday night’s big Championship clash.
Victory for the Dark Blues will see them top of the second tier over Christmas and New Year.
That would be the first time Gary Bowyer’s side had put themselves into first place all season.
The two matches between the sides this term have ended in one win each.
But how do Dundee and the Honest Men compare this term?
Courier Sport digs into the stats provided by our new partner StatsBomb to see how Friday night’s opponents stack up against each other.
Attack
In basic terms, Ayr have scored 10 more goals this season than Dundee. In their 18 matches, they’ve found the net 38 times while the Dee have 28 in 17.
Dipo Akinyemi has been a big factor in that, scoring 15 of those.
But, despite that big difference in goal output, the Dark Blues haven’t had a problem creating chances.
In fact, their xG (expected goals per game, a measure of quality of chances created BY a team) is almost on par with Ayr, trailing by 1.44 to 1.47.
That says Lee Bullen’s side have been being better at finishing the chances they create, pointing again to the quality of Akinyemi.
Defence
Dundee’s recent good run has been based on a solid foundation at the back.
Only Morton have conceded fewer goals this season with 17 to Dundee’s 20.
Ayr, meanwhile, have let in 25, though they have played a game more.
Dig a little deeper, though, and there is more good reading for the Dark Blues.
Turning the xG stat into a defensive measure, Dundee have the best xGC (expected goals conceded, a measure of the quality of chances created AGAINST a team) in the Championship.
In fact, they are the only side with an xGC per game that is less than one at 0.85. That means going purely on chances that would reasonably be expected to be scored, Dundee should be conceding less than a goal a game.
In reality, that’s not quite matched up with a few outliers like Bobby Linn’s free-kick or Cammy Harper’s double at Dens for Inverness standing out from the norm.
For comparison, Morton’s xGC is 1.03 while Ayr are at 1.31. Cove Rangers have the worst at 1.57.
Dundee’s defence is out-performing the rest of the division.
How do they like to attack?
Ayr like to counter-attack. They are not afraid to shoot from range and are dangerous from set-plays.
In their 18 league matches this term, they have fired in 227 shots while Dundee are way behind on 164 in 17.
The Honest Men have managed 101 more shots on goal than bottom side Arbroath this term.
Of those 227, 105 have found the target (46%) while the Dee have managed 77 on target (47%).
Dundee, meanwhile, are very strong on set-pieces, dribble more than average and like to keep the ball more than the league average – and certainly more than Ayr.
How will it play out?
Ayr are a strong attacking side while Dundee’s strength is defence.
The Dark Blues have shown they are far better than the Honest Men at stopping the opposition getting shots at their goal.
The stats suggest Friday night promises to be a clash of styles and approaches so it could well be another game determined by fine margins.
If Dundee can prevent dangerous turnovers that allow Ayr to counter, they’ll go some way to getting a positive result.
Whoever comes out on top, though, will head into 2023 as Championship leaders with confidence soaring.
Conversation