Dundee were the pre-season favourites to win the Championship.
This Friday they take on the team top of the table after four matches as they head to Ayr’s Somerset Park.
It is early days but Lee Bullen’s side have surprised plenty with their unbeaten start to the season.
Gary Bowyer’s Dark Blues have a test ahead of them as they look to go back to the top of the league, even if just for 24 hours.
But what can they expect from the Honest Men and how have they started so well?
So far
After a poor start in the Premier Sports Cup and then a 0-0 opening-day draw with Arbroath, Ayr’s campaign burst into life away to Queen’s Park.
Two-nil down after 32 minutes, striker Dipo Akinyemi kicked things off with a double, including a last-minute penalty that saw his side run out 3-2 winners at Ochilview.
Then another late goal earned a point at home to Hamilton the following week before a deserved win at Cove Rangers last time out with Akinyemi again on target, scoring his fourth of the campaign.
Style
What’s been most impressive about Ayr’s good recent form is that none of it has been anything like smash-and-grab.
Not only do the Honest Men lead the way in the division on points but also on shots taken, shots on target, crosses, expected goals (xG), dribbling and passes into the final third.
Bullen’s side have the top points tally, top scorer and lead the way in a number of attacking metrics after four matches.
Dundee’s defence – which has only conceded one goal away from home in four games this season – will have to be very much on their game.
In terms of chances created, Ayr are behind their own curve – they’ve scored seven goals but have an xG of 11.1. In simple terms, they’ve created good enough chances to have scored 11 times this season.
Dundee, meanwhile, have the same amount of goals scored in seven. But their xG is way behind Ayr and behind six teams in the division at just 4.99.
What does that mean? Dundee’s finishing has been good, making the most of difficult chances while Ayr have rued missed opportunities.
But they have had lots of them.
The Honest Men have had notably more shots on goal than any other team – 78 in their four matches compared to the next best with 56 (Arbroath). Thirty-two of them have been from outside the box.
They’ve also had 82 crosses compared to Dundee’s 64 and 163 dribbles, ahead of Arbroath’s 121.
This season, Ayr have shown the ability to create. Dundee will have to stand up to that.
How do Dundee stack up?
Not great, it must be said.
Statistics won’t paint a full picture until we’ve seen every team play each other.
But Dundee are rarely at the top end of any attacking stats so far.
They’ve had the sixth most shots, sixth most on target, eighth in terms of dribbles, eighth in total passes and ninth in passes to the final third.
Where they are near the top is average possession in equal second (55.2%) and second in total crosses behind Ayr.
What does that all mean?
The numbers don’t make great reading for Dundee but their opponents have been difficult ones, taking on two of last season’s top four.
The Honest Men, meanwhile, have had two teams who came up from League One.
It is a small sample size but it’s clear from the stats that the Dark Blues will need to up their game to get the better of Ayr on their own patch.
Lee Bullen’s side are on form and firing shots in left, right and centre.
Dundee will have a storm to weather at Somerset Park – do that and they can take back top spot in the Championship.
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