Dundee United’s grip on European football is slipping after St Mirren claimed a deserved 2-0 victory on Saturday.
The Buddies are just two points behind the fifth-placed Tangerines in the final continental qualification berth after goals from Mikael Mandron and Jonah Ayunga did the damage at Tannadice.
The Tangerines have now succumbed to three successive post-split defeats – conceding 10 goals in the process – and face a daunting trip to face Rangers in midweek.
Courier Sport analyses the action from a galling reverse against the men from Paisely.
If Dundee United are knackered…why?
As much as supporters don’t like to hear about fatigue (“excuses”, “cop out”, “it’s your job”), it is patently obvious this United side is out on its feet.
Whenever they surrendered possession – far too often, for the record – the Buddies swarmed forward in numbers, with apparent boundless energy.
No-one in tangerine was shirking, but their attempts to hare after the likes of Ayunga, Mandron, Ryan Alebiosu, Roland Idowu and the outstanding Killian Phillips were utterly futile.
If that unpalatable truth can be accepted, the bigger question becomes: why?
Simply, because the same players have been asked to go to the well continually this season. Only Kilmarnock have used fewer players in the Premiership than United’s tally of 26.
Of those, six have started five or fewer league matches.
That is an exceptionally shallow pool with which to pursue European qualification.
Moreover, Kevin Holt was sold after making it clear he wanted to join Derry City. Ross Graham and Luca Stephenson are out for the season. Kristijan Trapanovski, Ross Docherty and Ryan Strain have endured months on the sidelines.
Declan Gallagher, who needed a painkilling injection to play on Saturday, and Emmanuel Adegboyega are battling injury to fight for the cause.
There is an element of bad luck to all of that.
However, an over-reliance on the same group players also speaks to a severe lack of depth.
Meshack Ubochioma and Richard Odada have been poor signings, David Babunski and Jort van der Sande have faded and the January window – while few were complaining about the business at the time – has proved underwhelming.
Ruari Paton and Allan Campbell have not hit the heights they are capable of, while Lewis Fiorini has played 47 minutes in the league.
All the while, there is no backup for Will Ferry or Ryan Strain, they are defensively down to the bare bones and have a distinct lack of raw pace in the final third.
That leads to this point; a squad stretched to its limits and continental qualification hanging by a thread.
Regardless of how this season ends, it is apparent that more pace, power and depth is a necessity if the progress of the past two years is to continue.
Jonah Ayunga: Showcasing what United must add
“I thought they were unplayable,” beamed St Mirren boss Stephen Robinson after the victory. He was discussing his attacking duo of Mandron and Ayunga, who were magnificent at Tannadice.
The direct running of Ayunga shone a light on exactly what has been lacking from United’s attacking pool for years.
With Gallagher largely occupied by Mandron, Ayunga was able to drag Vicko Sevelj and Adegboyega all over the place, creating space into which Phillips and Idowu could dash and cause havoc.
Ayunga eventually notched a deserved goal in the second period and saw another disallowed for offside.
It would be unfair to characterise him as merely a mobile battering ram. His poise, technique and link-up with Mandron – who was a colossal focal point – was impeccable.
Goodwin has tried to go with two up-front on occasion this season, but the rapport between Sam Dalby and a rotating cast of Paton, van der Sande and Louis Moult is yet to pay dividends.
He could be forgiven for casting a jealous glance at the efficacy of Robinson’s deadly duo.
Missed opportunities
For all St Mirren were the better side and deservedly left Tannadice with all three points, United still created excellent opportunities.
Glenn Middleton’s sumptuous delivery to Dalby should have heralded the opening goal. The Terrors’ top scorer has converted immeasurably more difficult chances over the course of the campaign and should have burst the net with his header.
Ross Docherty had two excellent chances from inside the box – one volley and another with his head – and would end the game with a personal xG of 0.52, which was the highest of any player on the pitch.
However, just as the Buddies were more energetic, combative and creative, they were also more clinical.
Avoiding a summer of reflection and regret
If United do drop to sixth place, it will not make this campaign a failure.
That is an objective fact.
The pre-season expectation was not to finish fifth; the Terrors do not have the fifth-highest budget in the Premiership – that is not the watermark against which Goodwin is being judged by any reasonable observer, or his employers.
However, missing out on continental qualification WOULD represent a mammoth missed opportunity and, when the time for retrospection comes, leave everyone at Tannadice nursing a summer of regret.
With 35 Premiership matchdays completed, United have only been outside the top five for ONE of those, when a 1-1 draw at Ross County in the second league game of the season left them in seventh spot.
To slip out of the European places for the first time since August, just as the finish line is crossed, would create an unavoidable sense of what might have been.
And while it would not completely ruin an otherwise heartening season of consolidation, another late collapse (potentially United’s second successive Premiership campaign of losing all five post-split games) would cast a long shadow.
Can the Tangerines regroup and avoid that fate?
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