We asked six estate agents in Courier Country to predict what we can expect from house prices in 2022.
2021 saw demand outweigh supply and house prices rise by around 10% as people have looked for bigger houses with work from home space and gardens.
Particularly popular areas have been coastal areas such as St Andrews, the East Neuk of Fife, Carnoustie and Monifieth.
The west end of Dundee, Broughty Ferry and Perth have seen property regularly go for at least 10% over the asking price.
Going into 2022, local estate agents agree prices will continue to rise, but opinion is divided on whether the housing market frenzy will carry on.
Will the housing market bubble burst?
Managing director of the estate agency operation at Thorntons Peter Ryder expects the new year to start with a bang.
He said: “We have a record number of clients on our mailing list, so buyer demand is definitely there.
“We will see the property market beginning to return to some sort of normality, with far more properties coming to market early next year.
“Therefore, 2022 should be less hectic and see a stabilising of property prices due to greater buyer choice and an easing of pressure on home purchases.”
At RSB Lindsays in Dundee, sellers are already lined up to put their house on the market this month.
Partner Chris Todd is expecting a busy, buoyant and competitive housing market across Tayside.
“But it will be a little cooler than we have been experiencing – something closer to pre-pandemic levels rather than the explosion we have witnessed since the aftermath of lockdown restrictions being eased in the summer of 2020.
“That situation could not continue for the long-term and we have seen a little of the heat come out of the market in recent months.”
Will house prices stay the same?
With continuing Covid uncertainty, head of Gilson Gray’s Dundee office Lindsay Darroch expects 2022 to be similar to 2021.
As many won’t put their house on the market until they can buy somewhere better, demand will remain higher than supply.
“I hope developers will step up to the plate and release more stock on to the market,” he says.
“This will be the grease that oils the housing market wheel.
“I also hope more support will be given to first time buyers to allow them to get on the ladder.”
Director of property services at Blackadders, Martin Paterson also hopes to see more houses come to market this year.
He describes the current condition in the property market as frustrating.
He says: “Being a seller’s market, the lack of housing stock is causing a backup of potential buyers who are sitting on the fence waiting for properties to come to the market.
“Hopefully during 2022 we will see more stock come onto the market and subsequently more flexibility in availability.”
In Perthshire, Possible director Gary Robertson thinks the strong market conditions will continue for even longer due to desirable rural locations.
He says: “There’s no doubt that the property market will normalise at some point and this bubble of heightened activity won’t last forever.
“There will be a busy start to the year and things will continue as they did throughout 2021.”
Why will house prices rise in 2022?
Across the board, the estate agents believe we will see a price increase.
Jim Parker, managing director of Fife Properties has five reasons why.
“Interest rates are still low and people will pay more if mortgage payments are manageable.
“We simply can’t build enough to keep up with demand. We need 25,000 houses across Scotland every year to keep up with demand, but since 2018 the average has been 20,000.
“Over the last 10 years, net migration in Scotland has been 20,000. We’re not currently keeping up with building houses.
“So much money has been printed and pumped into the monetary system and it’s causing inflation. If people have more money the first thing they do is spend it on a new house.
“As interest rates are so low, people are turning to property to maximise their returns. Property in Fife has gone up over 200% in the last 20 years.”
How much will house prices rise in 2022?
The six estate agents that have made predictions for Courier Country estimate an average of a 4.67% rise.
Peter Ryder, Thorntons: “There will still be good demand. With the availability of good mortgage rates, we would predict a price increase of around 3% for 2022.”
Chris Todd, RSB Lindsays: “These things are always difficult to predict, but competition caused by the supply shortage likely means prices will rise around 5%.”
Lindsay Darroch, Gilson Gray: “I expect to see an average price increase by 8% in 2022 with stock levels trending down by similar levels to 2021.”
Martin Paterson, Blackadders: “Given the current market conditions, my best estimation would be around 4%.”
Gary Robertson, Possible: “I think we are set for another positive year, but I expect perhaps a modest 2-3% increase.”
Jim Parker, Fife Properties: “With the insatiable appetite for property, the Fife housing market will continue to boom in 2022. Prices could rise another 5-6%.”
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