It is déjà vu all over again as Dundee United prepare to host Kilmarnock.
Saturday’s Scottish Cup showdown against Killie will be the FIFTH time the sides have met this season — and we are still at the start of February.
As such, there will be a swathe of learnings, data and mistakes to draw upon as Liam Fox seeks to guide the Tangerines into the last eight.
One of those must be: the importance of shackling Danny Armstrong.
A massive goal from Danny Armstrong 🔵⚪️
Killie move up to 9⃣th 🙌#cinchPrem | @KilmarnockFC pic.twitter.com/2pnsTn5gvt
— SPFL (@spfl) February 2, 2023
Here, Courier Sport analyses the man who has proved he can be the difference-maker in games against United.
Standout
Armstrong entered the fray a second-half substitute at Rugby Park on the opening day of the Premiership season, playing a part in Killie rescuing a valuable point.
However, by the time the sides next met in October’s Viaplay Cup quarter-final, he was established as a mainstay.
Armstrong nodded home the winner as the Ayrshire outfit reached Hampden with a 2-1 victory, showing uncharacteristic aerial nous by ghosting into the box and glancing a header beyond Carljohan Eriksson.
A new contract followed for the ex-Raith Rovers winger, underlining his impact this term, and he was comfortably the visitors’ most progressive player in their 4-0 defeat at Tannadice.
In that comprehensive reverse in Tayside, Armstrong registered four shots and three key passes — more than anyone on the pitch for each metric, despite emerging on the losing side.
Indeed, that game was far closer than the four-goal margin would indicate.
United registered an xG of 1.27, compared to 1.01 from Killie. The Tangerines racked up seven shots to the visitors’ 16 — albeit none of those efforts from McInnes’ men tested Mark Birighitti.
Killie also enjoyed 58% of possession, albeit that often has little bearing on the result.
In short, that encounter was not the hammering that, on first glance, it appears, and should not have Arabs expecting a cake-walk on Saturday.
Match-winner
The coup de grâce of Armstrong’s outings against the Tangerines came last week, when he utterly tormented United.
Although Killie only won 1-0, they registered an xG of 2.92 and deserved a far more comprehensive victory.
Armstrong alone scored the winning goal in spectacular fashion and contributed SEVEN key passes, amounting to an xG of 0.87.
The two most common passing combinations both involved him, with Lewis Mayo and Liam Polworth both finding him on seven occasions.
Everything revolved around Armstrong and no black jerseys got close enough to stop him.
Vital task
Armstrong has become adapt at taking advantage of any gaps in United set-up, drifting into the half-spaces between the Tangerines’ left-sided centre-back and left wing-back.
He often floats even further inside, as evidenced by his goal last midweek.
The most direct comparison in the United side would be Glenn Middleton, enjoying a fine campaign, and Armstrong is ahead of the ex-Rangers man in a number of metrics this term including shots, winning back possession and touches in the opposition box (below).
Shackling him will require a mix of organisation and communication on the pitch because, such is the freedom he is afforded, Armstrong’s movements cannot be entirely predicted by Fox in advance.
He also possesses something of a talismanic quality.
Armstrong has scored nine goals this season. Killie have won ALL of those matches — including two against United.
If United are to take their place in the last eight of the Scottish Cup, it is imperative Fox and his players find a solution to ensure he doesn’t add to that tally.
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